· Analysis updated 13:30 UTC
Grama vs Manresa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Grama and 1.07 for Manresa, a combined total of 2.41. That distribution gives Grama the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.4% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Grama home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Manresa away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Grama to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 27% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for Grama and 1.07 for Manresa, a combined 2.41 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 1–012.1%
- 0–19.6%
- 0–09.0%
- 2–18.6%
Recent form
Grama
- 2026-10-11T09:45:00.000Z · H vs Tona · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T09:45:00.000Z · H vs Vilassar Mar · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Montañesa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T09:45:00.000Z · H vs Martinenc · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs L'Escala · 2-1 (W)
Manresa
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tudelano · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Peña Sport · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Arnedo · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Atlètic Lleida · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sant Andreu · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.