Nou Camp Municipal de Santa Coloma · Analysis updated 15:24 UTC
Grama vs Vic Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Grama and 0.78 for Vic, a combined total of 2.18. That distribution gives Grama the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Grama win
51.8% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 0.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Grama home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vic away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Grama to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 28% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Grama and 0.78 for Vic, a combined 2.18 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.9%
- 1–112.3%
- 0–011.4%
- 2–011.1%
- 0–18.8%
Recent form
Grama
- 2026-10-11T09:45:00.000Z · H vs Tona · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T09:45:00.000Z · H vs Vilassar Mar · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Montañesa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T09:45:00.000Z · H vs Martinenc · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs L'Escala · 2-1 (W)
Vic
- 2026-05-10T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Badalona · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-03T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Montañesa · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-26T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Cerdanyola del Vallès · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Peralada · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-12T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Can Vidalet · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-15T10:45:00.000Z · Grama 1-2 Vic (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)
- 2025-11-02T11:00:00.000Z · Grama 1-1 Vic (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | L'Hospitalet | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 13 |
| 2 | Montañesa | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 3 | Grama | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 |
| 4 | Badalona | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
| 5 | Vilanova | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Pobla Mafumet | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | Atlètic Lleida | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 8 | Cerdanyola del Vallès | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 9 | Martinenc | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 9 |
| 10 | San Juan Atletico de Montcada | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Tona | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 12 | Europa II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 |
| 13 | Peralada | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 14 | L'Escala | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 15 | Mollerussa | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 16 | San Cristóbal | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 8 |
| 17 | Cornellà | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 18 | Vilassar Mar | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Grama win, at 51.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.