· Analysis updated 12:00 UTC
Gramadense vs Monsoon Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.46 expected goals for Gramadense and 0.83 for Monsoon, a combined total of 2.29. That distribution gives Gramadense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Gramadense win
52.2% probability
Expected goals
1.46 – 0.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gramadense home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gramadense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 27% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.46 goals for Gramadense and 0.83 for Monsoon, a combined 2.29 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 40% and both teams to score at 43%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.8%
- 1–112.2%
- 2–010.8%
- 0–010.1%
- 2–19.0%
Recent form
Gramadense
- 2026-07-23T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Brasil DE Pelotas · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Brasil DE Pelotas · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Bagé · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Bagé · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Santa Cruz RS · 2-2 (D)
Monsoon
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-11T18:00:00.000Z · Gramadense 1-0 Monsoon (Copa Gaúcha)
- 2026-05-24T18:00:00.000Z · Gramadense 2-1 Monsoon (Copa Gaúcha)
Copa Gaúcha table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brasil DE Pelotas | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 21 |
| 2 | Gramadense | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 3 | Santa Cruz RS | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 4 | Bagé | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 5 | Guarany de Bagé | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 6 | Monsoon | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 7 | Brasil Farroupilha | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 8 | Farroupilha | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gramadense win, at 52.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.