Campo Vila Olimpica · Analysis updated 07:12 UTC
Gramadense vs Real Sport Club Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Gramadense and 1.95 for Real Sport Club, a combined total of 3.11. That distribution gives Real Sport Club the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Real Sport Club win
55.7% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 1.95
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gramadense home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Real Sport Club away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Real Sport Club to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 22% / 22% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for Gramadense and 1.95 for Real Sport Club, a combined 3.11 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.1%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–18.7%
- 0–28.5%
- 1–36.4%
Recent form
Gramadense
- 2026-07-23T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Brasil DE Pelotas · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Brasil DE Pelotas · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Bagé · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Bagé · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Santa Cruz RS · 2-2 (D)
Real Sport Club
- 2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Clube 1992 · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs SC Rio Grande · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Panambi · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-07T18:00:00.000Z · A vs EC Novo Horizonte · 9-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Farroupilha · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Gaúcho - 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Sport Club | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 28 | 20 |
| 2 | Panambi | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | Futebol Com Vida | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 10 | 17 |
| 4 | São Paulo RS | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Cruz A. | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | Farroupilha | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 7 | FBC Riograndense RS | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 8 | Clube 1992 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 9 | EC Novo Horizonte | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -24 | 4 |
| 10 | SC Rio Grande | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -20 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Real Sport Club win, at 55.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.