Granada II vs Cantoria Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Granada II and 0.85 for Cantoria, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Granada II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Granada II win

64.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.00 – 0.85

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Granada II home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Granada II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 21% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Granada II and 0.85 for Cantoria, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 54% and both teams to score at 50%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Match result (1X2)

Granada II win64%

Draw21%

Cantoria win15%

Double chance 1X

85%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

36%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–011.6%
2–011.6%
1–19.8%
2–19.8%
3–07.7%

Recent form

Granada II

2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Cantoria · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Porcuna · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs UD San Pedro · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Alhaurino · 0-0 (D)
2026-05-10T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Mijas Las Lagunas · 4-4 (D)

Cantoria

2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Granada II · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Málaga II · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico de Marbella · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Porcuna · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Melilla	6	6	0	0	10	18
2	Arenas Armilla	6	4	2	0	8	14
3	Almería II	6	4	1	1	7	13
4	Marbelli	6	4	1	1	3	13
5	Motril	6	3	3	0	4	12
6	Málaga II	6	3	1	2	6	10
7	Granada II	6	3	1	2	4	10
8	Churriana Vega	6	3	0	3	3	9
9	UD San Pedro	6	3	0	3	-3	9
10	Ciudad de Torredonjimeno	6	2	2	2	1	8
11	Torre del Mar	6	2	1	3	0	7
12	Alhaurino	6	2	1	3	-2	7
13	Atlético Porcuna	6	2	1	3	-8	7
14	Huétor Vega	6	1	2	3	-4	5
15	Atletico de Marbella	6	1	1	4	-4	4
16	Cantoria	6	0	3	3	-6	3
17	Mancha Real	6	0	2	4	-7	2
18	Malaga City	6	0	0	6	-12	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Granada II win, at 64.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.