Graničar Đurđevac vs Bilogora 91 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.48 expected goals for Graničar Đurđevac and 1.22 for Bilogora 91, a combined total of 4.69. That distribution gives Graničar Đurđevac the largest share of the 1X2 market at 79%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 79% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Graničar Đurđevac win

79.3% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

3.48 – 1.22

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Graničar Đurđevac home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Bilogora 91 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Graničar Đurđevac to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 79%, against 79% / 12% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.48 goals for Graničar Đurđevac and 1.22 for Bilogora 91, a combined 4.69 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Graničar Đurđevac win79%

Draw12%

Bilogora 91 win9%

Double chance 1X

91%

Double chance 12

89%

Double chance X2

21%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%

Over 2.5 goals84%

Over 3.5 goals68%

Both teams to score68%

Correct score

3–17.8%
4–16.8%
2–16.7%
3–06.4%
4–05.6%

Recent form

Graničar Đurđevac

2026-08-01T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Mladost Petrinja · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Bjelovar · 0-2 (L)
2026-01-28T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Bjelovar · 2-6 (L)
2025-11-29T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Graničar Kotoriba · 1-3 (L)
2025-11-24T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Bilogora 91 · 4-0 (W)

Bilogora 91

2025-11-29T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Podravina Ludbreg · 2-1 (W)
2025-11-24T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Graničar Đurđevac · 0-4 (L)
2025-11-15T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Graničar Kotoriba · 3-2 (W)
2025-11-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nedelišće · 3-1 (W)
2025-11-02T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Polet · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Third NL - Sjever table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Koprivnica	15	11	2	2	28	35
2	Graničar Đurđevac	15	10	4	1	35	34
3	Dinamo Predavac	15	9	4	2	15	31
4	Rudar Mursko Središće	15	8	4	3	14	28
5	Bilogora 91	15	8	1	6	3	25
6	Međimurec Pretetinec	15	7	4	4	1	25
7	Polet	15	7	2	6	-2	23
8	Graničar Kotoriba	14	7	0	7	6	21
9	Pitomača	15	5	4	6	-9	19
10	Slatina	15	5	3	7	-4	18
11	Podravina Ludbreg	15	3	6	6	-10	15
12	Medjimurje Cakovec	15	3	4	8	-9	13
13	Garić Garešnica	14	3	4	7	-13	13
14	Daruvar	14	3	2	9	-14	11
15	Nedelišće	14	3	1	10	-16	10
16	Dinamo Domašinec	15	2	3	10	-25	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Graničar Đurđevac win, at 79.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 84%.

A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.