· Analysis updated 20:20 UTC
Granville vs Angoulême Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Granville and 1.40 for Angoulême, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Angoulême the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
69.1% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Granville home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Angoulême away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Angoulême to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 31% / 26% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Granville and 1.40 for Angoulême, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 0–110.9%
- 1–09.0%
- 1–28.8%
- 0–07.8%
Recent form
Granville
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Saint-Malo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Stade Briochin · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Le Poiré sur Vie · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Pontivy GSI · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-21T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Bayonne · 1-3 (L)
Angoulême
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Pontivy GSI · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Bayonne · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tarbes · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Chauray · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Avranches · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National 2 - Group B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Angoulême | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
| 2 | Bayonne | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 3 | Avranches | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | Lorient II | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 12 |
| 5 | Granville | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | Dinan Léhon | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 7 | Saint-Malo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Stade Briochin | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Le Poiré sur Vie | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 10 | Tarbes | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 | Saint-Colomban Locminé | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Les Herbiers | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Saumur | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 14 | Pontivy GSI | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 15 | Châteaubriant | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -7 | 4 |
| 16 | Chauray | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.