Granville vs Le Poiré sur Vie Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.71 expected goals for Granville and 1.31 for Le Poiré sur Vie, a combined total of 3.02. That distribution gives Granville the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Granville win

46.8% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.71 – 1.31

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Granville home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Le Poiré sur Vie away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Granville to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 24% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.71 goals for Granville and 1.31 for Le Poiré sur Vie, a combined 3.02 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Granville win47%

Draw24%

Le Poiré sur Vie win30%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

53%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–110.9%
2–19.3%
1–08.3%
1–27.2%
2–07.1%

Recent form

Granville

2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Saint-Malo · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Stade Briochin · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Le Poiré sur Vie · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Pontivy GSI · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-21T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Bayonne · 1-3 (L)

Le Poiré sur Vie

2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Châteaubriant · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lorient II · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Saumur · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Granville · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Saint-Malo · 0-4 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · Granville 2-1 Le Poiré sur Vie (National 2 - Group B)
2025-04-12T16:00:00.000Z · Granville 1-0 Le Poiré sur Vie (National 2 - Group B)
2024-11-30T17:00:00.000Z · Granville 0-1 Le Poiré sur Vie (National 2 - Group B)

National 2 - Group B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Angoulême	7	5	2	0	7	17
2	Bayonne	7	5	1	1	6	16
3	Avranches	7	4	2	1	7	14
4	Lorient II	7	4	0	3	6	12
5	Granville	7	3	2	2	0	11
6	Dinan Léhon	7	3	2	2	0	11
7	Saint-Malo	7	3	2	2	3	11
8	Stade Briochin	7	2	4	1	2	10
9	Le Poiré sur Vie	7	3	0	4	-1	9
10	Tarbes	7	2	3	2	-1	9
11	Saint-Colomban Locminé	7	2	2	3	0	8
12	Les Herbiers	7	2	2	3	-2	8
13	Saumur	7	2	1	4	-5	7
14	Pontivy GSI	7	0	4	3	-5	4
15	Châteaubriant	7	0	4	3	-7	4
16	Chauray	7	0	1	6	-10	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Granville win, at 46.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.