Grasshopper II vs Black Stars Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.40 expected goals for Grasshopper II and 1.25 for Black Stars, a combined total of 3.65. That distribution gives Grasshopper II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Grasshopper II win

62.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.40 – 1.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Grasshopper II home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Grasshopper II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 19% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.40 goals for Grasshopper II and 1.25 for Black Stars, a combined 3.65 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 71% and both teams to score at 65%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Match result (1X2)

Grasshopper II win63%

Draw19%

Black Stars win19%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

37%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals71%

Over 3.5 goals49%

Both teams to score65%

Correct score

2–19.4%
1–17.8%
3–17.5%
2–07.5%
1–06.2%

Recent form

Grasshopper II

2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Zug · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Solothurn · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Muttenz · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Bassecourt · 3-1 (W)
2026-06-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Amical Saint-Prex · 1-1 (D)

Black Stars

2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Solothurn · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Muttenz · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bassecourt · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Schötz · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Thun II · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-05-23T14:00:00.000Z · Grasshopper II 1-2 Black Stars (1. Liga Classic - Group 2)
2025-11-15T14:00:00.000Z · Grasshopper II 5-1 Black Stars (1. Liga Classic - Group 2)
2025-04-06T11:30:00.000Z · Grasshopper II 2-0 Black Stars (1. Liga Classic - Group 2)
2024-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · Grasshopper II 8-1 Black Stars (1. Liga Classic - Group 2)

1. Liga Classic - Group 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Langenthal	10	7	2	1	9	23
2	Courtételle	11	7	1	3	11	22
3	Schötz	11	6	2	3	11	20
4	Muttenz	11	6	2	3	6	20
5	Solothurn	11	6	1	4	7	19
6	Delémont	10	5	2	3	7	17
7	Concordia Basel	11	5	2	4	6	17
8	Buochs	11	5	1	5	-1	16
9	Muri-Gümligen	11	5	1	5	-3	16
10	Grasshopper II	11	5	0	6	-3	15
11	Zug	11	4	1	6	-8	13
12	FC Wohlen	10	3	3	4	-4	12
13	Thun II	11	3	3	5	-5	12
14	Bassecourt	10	3	1	6	-9	10
15	Black Stars	11	1	6	4	-5	9
16	Münsingen	11	0	2	9	-19	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Grasshopper II win, at 62.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.