· Analysis updated 15:06 UTC
Grasshopper W vs Aarau W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 4.50 expected goals for Grasshopper W and 0.82 for Aarau W, a combined total of 5.32. That distribution gives Grasshopper W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 93%, with the draw at 5%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 4–0 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 93% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Grasshopper W win
92.5% probability
Expected goals
4.50 – 0.82
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Grasshopper W home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Aarau W away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Grasshopper W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 93%, against 93% / 5% / 3% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.50 goals for Grasshopper W and 0.82 for Aarau W, a combined 5.32 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
98%
Double chance 12
95%
Double chance X2
8%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 4–08.3%
- 5–07.5%
- 3–07.4%
- 4–16.9%
- 5–16.2%
Recent form
Grasshopper W
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Yverdon W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-16T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Rapperswil Jona W · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Aarau W · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Aarau W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-05-09T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Aarau W · 2-0 (W)
Aarau W
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Servette Chênois W · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Grasshopper W · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Grasshopper W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-09T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Grasshopper W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-01T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Servette Chênois W · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
AXA Women’s Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Servette Chênois W | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 2 | Grasshopper W | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 17 |
| 3 | Zürich W | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 15 |
| 4 | Young Boys W | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | Basel W | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Luzern W | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Yverdon W | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 8 | Rapperswil Jona W | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 9 | St. Gallen W | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 10 | Aarau W | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -23 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Grasshopper W win, at 92.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 86%.
A 93% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.