· Analysis updated 14:05 UTC
Grasshopper W vs Luzern W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.33 expected goals for Grasshopper W and 1.17 for Luzern W, a combined total of 4.50. That distribution gives Grasshopper W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 78%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 78% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Grasshopper W win
78.2% probability
Expected goals
3.33 – 1.17
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Grasshopper W home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Luzern W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
22%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–18.0%
- 2–17.2%
- 3–06.8%
- 4–16.6%
- 2–06.1%
Recent form
Grasshopper W
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Yverdon W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-16T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Rapperswil Jona W · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Aarau W · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Aarau W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-05-09T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Aarau W · 2-0 (W)
Luzern W
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Yverdon W · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Grasshopper W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Rapperswil Jona W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Aarau W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs St. Gallen W · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-14T17:00:00.000Z · Grasshopper W 2-2 Luzern W (AXA Women’s Super League)
- 2025-09-24T17:00:00.000Z · Grasshopper W 8-2 Luzern W (AXA Women’s Super League)
- 2025-02-02T13:00:00.000Z · Grasshopper W 6-0 Luzern W (AXA Women’s Super League)
- 2024-08-24T17:00:00.000Z · Grasshopper W 4-3 Luzern W (AXA Women’s Super League)
- 2023-12-08T18:00:00.000Z · Grasshopper W 1-0 Luzern W (AXA Women’s Super League)
- 2023-09-02T17:00:00.000Z · Grasshopper W 4-0 Luzern W (AXA Women’s Super League)
- 2023-04-15T16:00:00.000Z · Grasshopper W 5-0 Luzern W (AXA Women’s Super League)
- 2022-11-05T17:00:00.000Z · Grasshopper W 3-1 Luzern W (AXA Women’s Super League)
- 2022-05-14T17:00:00.000Z · Grasshopper W 3-3 Luzern W (AXA Women’s Super League)
- 2022-05-07T16:00:00.000Z · Grasshopper W 5-2 Luzern W (AXA Women’s Super League)
AXA Women’s Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Servette Chênois W | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 2 | Grasshopper W | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 17 |
| 3 | Zürich W | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 15 |
| 4 | Young Boys W | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | Basel W | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Luzern W | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Yverdon W | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 8 | Rapperswil Jona W | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 9 | St. Gallen W | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 10 | Aarau W | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -23 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Grasshopper W win, at 78.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.
A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.