· Analysis updated 04:35 UTC
Grasshoppers vs FC Aarau Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Grasshoppers and 1.56 for FC Aarau, a combined total of 3.74. That distribution gives Grasshoppers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Grasshoppers win
51.9% probability
Expected goals
2.18 – 1.56
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Grasshoppers home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Aarau away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Grasshoppers to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 21% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for Grasshoppers and 1.56 for FC Aarau, a combined 3.74 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.8%
- 1–18.0%
- 2–26.9%
- 3–16.4%
- 1–26.3%
Recent form
Grasshoppers
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Grenchen · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs BSC Young Boys · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Yverdon Sport · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-24T09:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Aarau · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Luzern · 1-5 (L)
FC Aarau
- 2026-10-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Étoile Carouge · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Zurich · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Stade Nyonnais · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T14:30:00.000Z · H vs BSC Young Boys · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-24T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Grasshoppers · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Grasshoppers win, at 51.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.