Gravina vs Francavilla Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Gravina and 0.75 for Francavilla, a combined total of 2.34. That distribution gives Gravina the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Gravina win

57.7% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.60 – 0.75

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Gravina home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Francavilla away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gravina to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 25% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.60 goals for Gravina and 0.75 for Francavilla, a combined 2.34 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Gravina win58%

Draw25%

Francavilla win17%

Double chance 1X

83%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

42%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score42%

Correct score

1–015.3%
2–012.2%
1–111.4%
0–09.6%
2–19.1%

Recent form

Gravina

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nardò · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-07T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Virtus Francavilla · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Virtus Francavilla · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Normanna · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Forio 2014 · 2-2 (D)

Francavilla

2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Gravina · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Gladiator · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Martina Franca · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Brindisi · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Melfi · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie D - Girone H table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Martina Franca	8	6	0	2	9	18
2	Turris	8	5	3	0	8	18
3	Virtus Francavilla	8	6	0	2	5	18
4	Bisceglie	8	5	0	3	5	15
5	Brindisi	8	5	0	3	3	15
6	Manfredonia	8	4	2	2	3	14
7	Gravina	8	3	4	1	5	13
8	Nocerina	8	4	1	3	1	13
9	Real Normanna	8	3	2	3	-1	11
10	USD Palmese	9	3	2	4	-2	11
11	Fidelis Andria	8	3	1	4	-3	10
12	Gladiator	8	2	3	3	-2	9
13	Ebolitana	8	2	2	4	-6	8
14	Melfi	9	2	2	5	-6	8
15	Real Forio 2014	8	2	1	5	-3	7
16	Ischia	8	1	2	5	-4	5
17	Francavilla	8	1	2	5	-4	5
18	Nardò	8	1	3	4	-8	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Gravina win, at 57.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.

A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.