· Analysis updated 14:39 UTC
Grazer AK vs Dynamo Dresden Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Grazer AK and 4.50 for Dynamo Dresden, a combined total of 5.75. That distribution gives Dynamo Dresden the largest share of the 1X2 market at 88%, with the draw at 7%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 89% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–4 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 88% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dynamo Dresden win
87.7% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 4.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Grazer AK home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Dynamo Dresden away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dynamo Dresden to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 88%, against 5% / 7% / 88% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Grazer AK and 4.50 for Dynamo Dresden, a combined 5.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
12%
Double chance 12
93%
Double chance X2
95%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–46.8%
- 1–56.1%
- 1–36.0%
- 0–45.4%
- 0–54.9%
Recent form
Grazer AK
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Red Bull Salzburg · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kalsdorf · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Austria Vienna · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs SCR Altach · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kitzbühel · 2-0 (W)
Dynamo Dresden
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Teplice · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Hertha BSC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Braunschweig · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T18:30:00.000Z · H vs VfL Bochum · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Heidenheim · 3-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dynamo Dresden win, at 87.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–4.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 89%.
A 88% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.