Stadion Graz-Liebenau · Referee Stefan Ebner, Austria · Analysis updated 22:48 UTC
Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for Grazer AK and 2.08 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Red Bull Salzburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Red Bull Salzburg win
65.7% probability
Expected goals
0.85 – 2.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Grazer AK home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Red Bull Salzburg away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
34%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
86%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–211.6%
- 0–111.1%
- 1–29.8%
- 1–19.5%
- 0–38.0%
Recent form
Grazer AK
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Red Bull Salzburg · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kalsdorf · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Austria Vienna · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs SCR Altach · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kitzbühel · 2-0 (W)
Red Bull Salzburg
- 2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Celje · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · H vs SCR Altach · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · H vs AC Milan · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Grazer AK · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-02T15:30:00.000Z · H vs FC BW Linz · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-15T13:30:00.000Z · Grazer AK 1-1 Red Bull Salzburg (Bundesliga)
- 2025-08-09T17:30:00.000Z · Grazer AK 0-5 Red Bull Salzburg (Bundesliga)
- 2024-11-02T16:00:00.000Z · Grazer AK 0-0 Red Bull Salzburg (Bundesliga)
- 2024-08-02T18:30:00.000Z · Grazer AK 2-3 Red Bull Salzburg (Bundesliga)
- 2023-02-04T10:00:00.000Z · Grazer AK 4-3 Red Bull Salzburg (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2019-04-03T16:00:00.000Z · Grazer AK 0-6 Red Bull Salzburg (Cup)
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rapid Vienna | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 27 |
| 2 | Red Bull Salzburg | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 21 |
| 3 | Lask Linz | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 19 |
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 17 |
| 5 | Ried | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | TSV Hartberg | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 14 |
| 7 | WSG Wattens | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 8 | Grazer AK | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -15 | 10 |
| 9 | SCR Altach | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -6 | 9 |
| 10 | Austria Lustenau | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 8 |
| 11 | Austria Vienna | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -10 | 7 |
| 12 | Wolfsberger AC | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -12 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Red Bull Salzburg win, at 65.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.