· Analysis updated 14:36 UTC
Grebbestad vs IFK Skövde Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Grebbestad and 1.46 for IFK Skövde, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives IFK Skövde the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.5% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.46
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Grebbestad home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
IFK Skövde away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 0–18.9%
- 1–28.7%
- 1–08.1%
- 2–17.9%
Recent form
Grebbestad
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Skara · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Motala · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Vänersborgs IF · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Lidköping · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Husqvarna · 2-3 (L)
IFK Skövde
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Stenungsund · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs IF Karlstad II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Husqvarna · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Tord · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Kumla · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T12:00:00.000Z · Grebbestad 1-1 IFK Skövde (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
- 2026-06-12T17:30:00.000Z · Grebbestad 4-0 IFK Skövde (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
- 2024-08-17T12:00:00.000Z · Grebbestad 1-2 IFK Skövde (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
- 2024-04-19T17:00:00.000Z · Grebbestad 1-4 IFK Skövde (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
- 2023-10-21T12:00:00.000Z · Grebbestad 1-3 IFK Skövde (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
- 2023-06-10T12:00:00.000Z · Grebbestad 1-5 IFK Skövde (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
- 2021-11-06T12:30:00.000Z · Grebbestad 3-0 IFK Skövde (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
- 2021-09-22T17:30:00.000Z · Grebbestad 2-1 IFK Skövde (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
Division 2 - Norra Götaland table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Husqvarna | 26 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 39 | 66 |
| 2 | Skara | 26 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 30 | 59 |
| 3 | IFK Skövde | 26 | 15 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 50 |
| 4 | Ahlafors | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 29 | 46 |
| 5 | Grebbestad | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 40 |
| 6 | Stenungsund | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 39 |
| 7 | Herrestads | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | -4 | 37 |
| 8 | Lidköping | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | -8 | 33 |
| 9 | Vänersborgs FK | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | -9 | 32 |
| 10 | Kumla | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | -17 | 29 |
| 11 | Motala | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | -9 | 26 |
| 12 | Tord | 26 | 4 | 10 | 12 | -17 | 22 |
| 13 | IF Karlstad II | 26 | 3 | 7 | 16 | -21 | 16 |
| 14 | Vänersborgs IF | 26 | 2 | 3 | 21 | -50 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.