· Analysis updated 06:18 UTC
Grebbestad vs Vänersborgs IF Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.22 expected goals for Grebbestad and 0.92 for Vänersborgs IF, a combined total of 4.14. That distribution gives Grebbestad the largest share of the 1X2 market at 82%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 82% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Grebbestad win
81.6% probability
Expected goals
3.22 – 0.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Grebbestad home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vänersborgs IF away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
89%
Double chance X2
18%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–08.9%
- 2–08.3%
- 3–18.1%
- 2–17.6%
- 4–07.1%
Recent form
Grebbestad
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Skara · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Motala · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Vänersborgs IF · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Lidköping · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Husqvarna · 2-3 (L)
Vänersborgs IF
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tord · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-21T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Herrestads · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-17T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Vänersborgs FK · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kumla · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-01T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Motala · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-11T17:15:00.000Z · Grebbestad 2-1 Vänersborgs IF (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
- 2026-06-18T17:00:00.000Z · Grebbestad 4-3 Vänersborgs IF (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
- 2025-08-16T11:00:00.000Z · Grebbestad 1-1 Vänersborgs IF (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
- 2025-05-23T17:15:00.000Z · Grebbestad 3-0 Vänersborgs IF (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
- 2024-10-04T17:30:00.000Z · Grebbestad 0-2 Vänersborgs IF (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
- 2024-06-20T17:30:00.000Z · Grebbestad 4-0 Vänersborgs IF (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
- 2020-08-14T17:00:00.000Z · Grebbestad 1-4 Vänersborgs IF (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
- 2019-09-28T12:00:00.000Z · Grebbestad 3-1 Vänersborgs IF (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
- 2019-06-20T17:00:00.000Z · Grebbestad 0-0 Vänersborgs IF (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
- 2017-09-08T17:00:00.000Z · Grebbestad 1-2 Vänersborgs IF (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
Division 2 - Norra Götaland table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Husqvarna | 26 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 39 | 66 |
| 2 | Skara | 26 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 30 | 59 |
| 3 | IFK Skövde | 26 | 15 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 50 |
| 4 | Ahlafors | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 29 | 46 |
| 5 | Grebbestad | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 40 |
| 6 | Stenungsund | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 39 |
| 7 | Herrestads | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | -4 | 37 |
| 8 | Lidköping | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | -8 | 33 |
| 9 | Vänersborgs FK | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | -9 | 32 |
| 10 | Kumla | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | -17 | 29 |
| 11 | Motala | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | -9 | 26 |
| 12 | Tord | 26 | 4 | 10 | 12 | -17 | 22 |
| 13 | IF Karlstad II | 26 | 3 | 7 | 16 | -21 | 16 |
| 14 | Vänersborgs IF | 26 | 2 | 3 | 21 | -50 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Grebbestad win, at 81.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 82% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.