Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium · Referee Daniele Chiffi, Italy · Analysis updated 10:14 UTC
Greece vs Paraguay Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Greece and 1.03 for Paraguay, a combined total of 2.28. That distribution gives Greece the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.7% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Greece home form
3 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Paraguay away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Greece to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 28% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Greece and 1.03 for Paraguay, a combined 2.28 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.2%
- 1–012.8%
- 0–110.5%
- 0–010.2%
- 2–18.2%
Recent form
Greece
- 2026-09-27T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Germany · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-24T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Serbia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-07T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Italy · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sweden · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-03-31T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Hungary · 0-0 (D)
Paraguay
- 2026-07-04T21:00:00.000Z · H vs France · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-29T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Germany · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-26T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Australia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-20T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Türkiye · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-13T01:00:00.000Z · A vs USA · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-27T19:00:00.000Z · Greece 0-1 Paraguay (Friendlies)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.