· Analysis updated 01:36 UTC
Green Eagles vs Kabwe Warriors Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Green Eagles and 1.15 for Kabwe Warriors, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Green Eagles the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.6% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Green Eagles home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Green Eagles to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 27% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Green Eagles and 1.15 for Kabwe Warriors, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 1–011.0%
- 0–19.2%
- 2–18.7%
- 0–08.0%
Recent form
Green Eagles
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nkwazi · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Roan United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs ZESCO United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mufulira Wanderers · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-05-22T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mines · 0-1 (L)
Kabwe Warriors
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mutondo Stars · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs ZESCO United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Man Utd Zambia Academy · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zanaco · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs ZESCO United · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-19T13:00:00.000Z · Green Eagles 1-1 Kabwe Warriors (Super League)
- 2025-11-13T13:00:00.000Z · Green Eagles 0-0 Kabwe Warriors (Super League)
- 2024-12-21T13:00:00.000Z · Green Eagles 2-1 Kabwe Warriors (Super League)
- 2024-08-17T13:00:00.000Z · Green Eagles 1-1 Kabwe Warriors (Super League)
- 2024-04-21T13:00:00.000Z · Green Eagles 1-1 Kabwe Warriors (Super League)
- 2023-11-11T13:00:00.000Z · Green Eagles 1-0 Kabwe Warriors (Super League)
- 2023-02-18T13:00:00.000Z · Green Eagles 0-2 Kabwe Warriors (Super League)
- 2022-10-09T13:00:00.000Z · Green Eagles 0-0 Kabwe Warriors (Super League)
- 2022-02-19T13:00:00.000Z · Green Eagles 2-1 Kabwe Warriors (Super League)
- 2021-10-16T13:00:00.000Z · Green Eagles 1-2 Kabwe Warriors (Super League)
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zanaco | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | ZESCO United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Nchanga Rangers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Green Buffaloes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Nkana | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Kabwe Warriors | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Power Dynamos | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Red Arrows | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Konkola Blades | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Roan United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | NAPSA Stars | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Green Eagles | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Man Utd Zambia Academy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Nkwazi | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Kansanshi Dynamos | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Mufulira Wanderers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Trident | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Mutondo Stars | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Makeni All Stars | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Chirundu Utd | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.