· Analysis updated 19:27 UTC
Green Eagles vs ZESCO United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Green Eagles and 1.07 for ZESCO United, a combined total of 2.27. That distribution gives Green Eagles the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.7% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Green Eagles home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
ZESCO United away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Green Eagles to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 29% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Green Eagles and 1.07 for ZESCO United, a combined 2.27 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.3%
- 1–012.4%
- 0–111.0%
- 0–010.3%
- 2–18.0%
Recent form
Green Eagles
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nkwazi · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Roan United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs ZESCO United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mufulira Wanderers · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-05-22T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mines · 0-1 (L)
ZESCO United
- 2026-05-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Zanaco · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-05-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Mines · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kabwe Warriors · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nkana · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Green Eagles · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zanaco | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | ZESCO United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Nchanga Rangers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Green Buffaloes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Nkana | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Kabwe Warriors | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Power Dynamos | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Red Arrows | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Konkola Blades | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Roan United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | NAPSA Stars | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Green Eagles | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Man Utd Zambia Academy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Nkwazi | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Kansanshi Dynamos | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Mufulira Wanderers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Trident | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Mutondo Stars | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Makeni All Stars | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Chirundu Utd | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.