· Analysis updated 11:28 UTC
Greifswalder FC vs Anker Wismar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Greifswalder FC and 1.37 for Anker Wismar, a combined total of 3.32. That distribution gives Greifswalder FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Greifswalder FC win
51.0% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Greifswalder FC home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Anker Wismar away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Greifswalder FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 22% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Greifswalder FC and 1.37 for Anker Wismar, a combined 3.32 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.6%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–07.0%
- 2–06.9%
- 1–26.6%
Recent form
Greifswalder FC
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Magdeburg II · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Erzgebirge Aue · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs BFC Dynamo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Luckenwalde · 3-1 (W)
Anker Wismar
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Optik Rathenow · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Siedenbollentin · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Lichtenberg · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-25T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Hansa Rostock II · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Mecklenburg Schwerin · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-04T14:30:00.000Z · Greifswalder FC 6-1 Anker Wismar (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-07-05T17:00:00.000Z · Greifswalder FC 5-0 Anker Wismar (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Greifswalder FC win, at 51.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.