· Analysis updated 00:22 UTC
Greifswalder FC vs BSG Chemie Leipzig Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Greifswalder FC and 1.73 for BSG Chemie Leipzig, a combined total of 3.53. That distribution gives Greifswalder FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.6% probability
Expected goals
1.80 – 1.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Greifswalder FC home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
BSG Chemie Leipzig away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Greifswalder FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 22% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.80 goals for Greifswalder FC and 1.73 for BSG Chemie Leipzig, a combined 3.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.1%
- 2–18.2%
- 1–27.9%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–05.3%
Recent form
Greifswalder FC
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Magdeburg II · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Erzgebirge Aue · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs BFC Dynamo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Luckenwalde · 3-1 (W)
BSG Chemie Leipzig
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotive Leipzig · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Luckenwalde · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Erzgebirge Aue · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Chemnitzer FC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Tasmania Berlin · 5-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Regionalliga - Nordost table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 24 | 31 |
| 2 | Chemnitzer FC | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 30 |
| 3 | Hallescher FC | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 29 |
| 4 | Altglienicke | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 27 |
| 5 | FC Carl Zeiss Jena | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 26 |
| 6 | BFC Dynamo | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 26 |
| 7 | Erzgebirge Aue | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 24 |
| 8 | Greifswalder FC | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 22 |
| 9 | Magdeburg II | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | -1 | 19 |
| 10 | FSV Zwickau | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 19 |
| 11 | Lokomotive Leipzig | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 18 |
| 12 | SV Babelsberg 03 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 16 |
| 13 | BSG Chemie Leipzig | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -5 | 13 |
| 14 | BFC Preussen | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -6 | 11 |
| 15 | Tasmania Berlin | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -18 | 11 |
| 16 | Hertha BSC II | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -15 | 10 |
| 17 | RSV Eintracht | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -17 | 9 |
| 18 | Luckenwalde | 14 | 2 | 0 | 12 | -20 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.