· Analysis updated 13:10 UTC
Greifswalder FC vs Neustrelitz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.51 expected goals for Greifswalder FC and 1.41 for Neustrelitz, a combined total of 3.92. That distribution gives Greifswalder FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Greifswalder FC win
61.4% probability
Expected goals
2.51 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Greifswalder FC home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Neustrelitz away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Greifswalder FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 18% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.51 goals for Greifswalder FC and 1.41 for Neustrelitz, a combined 3.92 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.8%
- 3–17.4%
- 1–17.0%
- 2–06.2%
- 2–26.2%
Recent form
Greifswalder FC
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Luckenwalde · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs RSV Eintracht · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotive Leipzig · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Tasmania Berlin · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-26T17:00:00.000Z · H vs SV Babelsberg 03 · 2-1 (W)
Neustrelitz
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs BAK '07 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Lichtenberg · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Reinickendorfer Fuchse · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Optik Rathenow · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Siedenbollentin · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Greifswalder FC win, at 61.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.