· Analysis updated 13:38 UTC
Grêmio Anápolis vs Rio Verde Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.88 expected goals for Grêmio Anápolis and 1.38 for Rio Verde, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Rio Verde the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Rio Verde win
48.5% probability
Expected goals
0.88 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Grêmio Anápolis home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rio Verde away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rio Verde to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 24% / 28% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.88 goals for Grêmio Anápolis and 1.38 for Rio Verde, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.5%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–010.5%
- 0–210.0%
- 1–09.2%
Recent form
Grêmio Anápolis
- 2026-10-03T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Rio Verde · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Trindade · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-23T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Bom Jesus EC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Mineiros · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Goianésia · 2-2 (D)
Rio Verde
- 2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Crixás EC · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-07T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Tupy FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Grêmio Anápolis · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Bom Jesus EC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-24T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Goianésia · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-03T19:00:00.000Z · Grêmio Anápolis 1-2 Rio Verde (Goiano - 2)
- 2026-08-02T20:00:00.000Z · Grêmio Anápolis 1-4 Rio Verde (Goiano - 2)
- 2025-07-19T19:00:00.000Z · Grêmio Anápolis 1-2 Rio Verde (Goiano - 2)
- 2025-05-31T20:00:00.000Z · Grêmio Anápolis 0-1 Rio Verde (Goiano - 2)
Goiano - 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rio Verde | 18 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 17 | 36 |
| 2 | Goianésia | 18 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 33 |
| 3 | Bom Jesus EC | 18 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 31 |
| 4 | Mineiros | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 28 |
| 5 | Morrinhos | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 23 |
| 6 | Goiânia | 18 | 5 | 8 | 5 | -4 | 23 |
| 7 | Tupy FC | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | -1 | 22 |
| 8 | Crixás EC | 18 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -10 | 16 |
| 9 | Grêmio Anápolis | 18 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -7 | 15 |
| 10 | Trindade | 18 | 2 | 6 | 10 | -13 | 12 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rio Verde win, at 48.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.