Grêmio Prudente vs Linense Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.21 expected goals for Grêmio Prudente and 1.40 for Linense, a combined total of 2.61. That distribution gives Linense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

67.4% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.21 – 1.40

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Grêmio Prudente home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Linense away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Grêmio Prudente win33%

Draw26%

Linense win41%

Double chance 1X

59%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

67%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–112.5%
0–110.3%
1–08.9%
1–28.7%
2–17.6%

Recent form

Grêmio Prudente

2026-09-26T20:00:00.000Z · H vs União São João · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Linense · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-15T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Linense · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-07T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Paulista · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-31T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Paulista · 4-0 (W)

Linense

2026-08-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Bandeirante SP · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-15T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Marília · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Grêmio Prudente · 5-2 (W)
2026-08-03T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Grêmio Prudente · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Marília · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-09T13:00:00.000Z · Grêmio Prudente 2-5 Linense (Copa Paulista)
2026-08-03T22:30:00.000Z · Grêmio Prudente 0-0 Linense (Copa Paulista)
2026-02-22T13:00:00.000Z · Grêmio Prudente 2-0 Linense (Paulista - A2)
2025-08-16T18:00:00.000Z · Grêmio Prudente 2-1 Linense (Copa Paulista)
2025-07-12T21:00:00.000Z · Grêmio Prudente 1-1 Linense (Copa Paulista)
2025-02-15T19:00:00.000Z · Grêmio Prudente 2-1 Linense (Paulista - A2)

Copa Paulista table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	São José EC	12	6	5	1	8	23
2	União São João	14	4	9	1	4	21
3	Primavera SP	10	5	3	2	14	18
4	Grêmio Prudente	12	5	3	4	2	18
5	Linense	8	4	3	1	7	15
6	EC São Bernardo	8	4	0	4	4	12
7	Noroeste	10	2	6	2	-1	12
8	Juventus	8	3	2	3	5	11
9	Bandeirante SP	8	3	2	3	-1	11
10	Comercial	10	3	2	5	-2	11
11	Santo André	6	3	1	2	-1	10
12	Paulista	8	3	1	4	-6	10
13	XV de Piracicaba	6	1	3	2	-2	6
14	Marília	6	1	1	4	-5	4
15	Oeste	6	1	1	4	-7	4
16	São Caetano	8	0	2	6	-19	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.