· Analysis updated 05:33 UTC
Grêmio Valparaíso U20 vs Real Brasília U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.65 expected goals for Grêmio Valparaíso U20 and 2.78 for Real Brasília U20, a combined total of 5.43. That distribution gives Real Brasília U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 90% for over 2.5 goals and 87% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
60.9% probability
Expected goals
2.65 – 2.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Grêmio Valparaíso U20 home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Real Brasília U20 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Real Brasília U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 39% / 18% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.65 goals for Grêmio Valparaíso U20 and 2.78 for Real Brasília U20, a combined 5.43 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.0%
- 2–35.5%
- 3–25.3%
- 3–34.9%
- 1–24.5%
Recent form
Grêmio Valparaíso U20
- 2026-07-26T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Ceilândia U20 · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-07-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Planaltina DF U20 · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-07-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cruzeiro U20 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-07-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Maria U20 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-06-27T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Canaã U20 · 0-4 (L)
Real Brasília U20
- 2026-08-23T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Brasiliense U20 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-16T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Brasiliense U20 · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-08-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Samambaia U20 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Samambaia U20 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-26T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Ceilandense U20 · 8-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Brasiliense U20 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brasiliense U20 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 9 |
| 2 | Legiao U20 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | Sobradinho U20 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 6 |
| 4 | Taguatinga U20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| 5 | Capital TO U20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| 6 | Samambaia U20 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 7 | Gama U20 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Brazlândia FC SAF U20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 9 | CFZ Brasilia U20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 3 |
| 10 | ARUC U20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -14 | 0 |
| 11 | Planaltina U20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -21 | 0 |
| 1 | Planaltina DF U20 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 12 |
| 2 | Grêmio Valparaíso U20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 |
| 3 | Canaã U20 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 4 | Real Brasília U20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | Brasília U20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Paranoa U20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 4 |
| 7 | Cruzeiro U20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 4 |
| 8 | Ceilandense U20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -7 | 4 |
| 9 | Santa Maria U20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 10 | Luziânia U20 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
| 11 | Ceilândia U20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 60.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 87% and over 2.5 goals at 90%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.