· Analysis updated 21:32 UTC
Gremio vs Atletico-MG Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Gremio and 0.80 for Atletico-MG, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Gremio the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Gremio win
49.7% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gremio home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gremio to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 28% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Gremio and 0.80 for Atletico-MG, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 36% and both teams to score at 41%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.7%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–011.6%
- 2–010.6%
- 0–19.3%
Recent form
Gremio
- 2026-10-11T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Internacional · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-07T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Remo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Palmeiras · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Botafogo · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Vasco DA Gama · 1-2 (L)
Atletico-MG
- 2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-08T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Paranaense · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T21:30:00.000Z · H vs RB Bragantino · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Chapecoense-sc · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gremio win, at 49.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.