Gremio vs Internacional Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Gremio and 0.88 for Internacional, a combined total of 2.23. That distribution gives Gremio the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Gremio win

47.8% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.35 – 0.88

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Gremio home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Internacional away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Gremio win48%

Draw28%

Internacional win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

52%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals65%

Over 2.5 goals38%

Over 3.5 goals19%

Both teams to score43%

Correct score

1–014.6%
1–112.8%
0–010.8%
2–09.8%
0–19.5%

Recent form

Gremio

2026-10-18T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Cruzeiro · 2-4 (L)
2026-10-11T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Internacional · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-07T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Remo · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Palmeiras · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-16T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Botafogo · 2-3 (L)

Internacional

2026-10-24T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Botafogo · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-16T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Mirassol · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-11T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Gremio · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-07T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Corinthians · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Sao Paulo · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-09-03T23:00:00.000Z · Gremio 3-1 Internacional (Copa Do Brasil)
2026-08-27T23:00:00.000Z · Gremio 0-0 Internacional (Copa Do Brasil)
2026-04-11T23:30:00.000Z · Gremio 0-0 Internacional (Serie A)
2026-03-08T21:00:00.000Z · Gremio 1-1 Internacional (Gaúcho - 1)
2026-03-01T21:00:00.000Z · Gremio 3-0 Internacional (Gaúcho - 1)
2026-01-25T23:00:00.000Z · Gremio 2-4 Internacional (Gaúcho - 1)
2025-09-21T20:30:00.000Z · Gremio 3-2 Internacional (Serie A)
2025-04-20T00:00:00.000Z · Gremio 1-1 Internacional (Serie A)
2025-03-16T19:00:00.000Z · Gremio 1-1 Internacional (Gaúcho - 1)
2025-03-08T20:45:00.000Z · Gremio 0-2 Internacional (Gaúcho - 1)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Gremio win, at 47.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.