· Analysis updated 13:43 UTC
Grenada vs British Virgin Islands Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Grenada and 1.05 for British Virgin Islands, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Grenada the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.0% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Grenada home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
British Virgin Islands away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Grenada to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 30% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for Grenada and 1.05 for British Virgin Islands, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.5%
- 1–012.8%
- 0–112.2%
- 0–011.6%
- 2–17.4%
Recent form
Grenada
- 2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rep. Of Ireland · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-03-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kenya · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-03-27T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Rwanda · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-01-18T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Jamaica · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-11-15T00:00:00.000Z · H vs US Virgin Islands · 4-1 (W)
British Virgin Islands
- 2026-09-26T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Montserrat · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-06-06T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Bonaire · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-06-03T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gibraltar · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-03-29T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Anguilla · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-03-27T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Cayman Islands · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2025-10-08T22:00:00.000Z · Grenada 4-1 British Virgin Islands (Friendlies)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.