Stade des Alpes · Referee Faouzi Benchabane, France · Analysis updated 13:41 UTC
Grenoble vs Metz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Grenoble and 3.00 for Metz, a combined total of 4.50. That distribution gives Metz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Metz win
67.8% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 3.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Grenoble home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Metz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 17% / 16% / 68% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Grenoble and 3.00 for Metz, a combined 4.50 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 82% and both teams to score at 74%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
32%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.5%
- 1–37.5%
- 1–45.6%
- 2–25.6%
- 2–35.6%
Recent form
Grenoble
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Clermont Foot · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Rodez · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Annecy · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Laval · 3-0 (W)
Metz
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Saint Etienne · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-14T18:45:00.000Z · A vs RED Star FC 93 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Rodez · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Annecy · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Laval · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint Etienne | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 19 |
| 2 | RED Star FC 93 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 17 |
| 3 | Montpellier | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 |
| 4 | Reims | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 5 | Nancy | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Annecy | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | Dijon | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | PAU | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Sochaux | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Metz | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 11 | Guingamp | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Dunkerque | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 | Nantes | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 14 | Grenoble | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 | Rodez | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 16 | Boulogne | 8 | 0 | 6 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 17 | Clermont Foot | 8 | 0 | 6 | 2 | -3 | 6 |
| 18 | Laval | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Metz win, at 67.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.