· Analysis updated 10:44 UTC
Grenoble vs Villefranche Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Grenoble and 1.03 for Villefranche, a combined total of 2.84. That distribution gives Grenoble the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Grenoble win
55.7% probability
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Grenoble home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Villefranche away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.9%
- 1–010.6%
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.6%
- 0–16.0%
Recent form
Grenoble
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Clermont Foot · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Rodez · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Annecy · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Laval · 3-0 (W)
Villefranche
- 2026-10-17T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Cannes · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Amiens · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Versailles · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Le Puy Foot · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:45:00.000Z · H vs La Roche VF · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-15T17:00:00.000Z · Grenoble 5-2 Villefranche (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-11-16T17:30:00.000Z · Grenoble 1-1 Villefranche (Coupe de France)
- 2023-11-17T18:30:00.000Z · Grenoble 2-1 Villefranche (Coupe de France)
- 2022-11-19T14:00:00.000Z · Grenoble 2-0 Villefranche (Coupe de France)
- 2022-07-20T00:00:00.000Z · Grenoble 0-2 Villefranche (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2017-03-11T17:00:00.000Z · Grenoble 3-0 Villefranche (National 2 - Group C)
- 2016-10-15T16:00:00.000Z · Grenoble 1-2 Villefranche (National 2 - Group C)
- 2016-03-12T17:00:00.000Z · Grenoble 0-0 Villefranche (National 2 - Group B)
- 2015-12-05T17:00:00.000Z · Grenoble 0-1 Villefranche (Coupe de France)
- 2015-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · Grenoble 2-0 Villefranche (National 2 - Group B)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Grenoble win, at 55.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.