· Analysis updated 10:10 UTC
Gresley vs Nuneaton Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.66 expected goals for Gresley and 1.06 for Nuneaton Town, a combined total of 2.72. That distribution gives Gresley the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Gresley win
51.4% probability
Expected goals
1.66 – 1.06
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gresley home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Nuneaton Town away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gresley to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 24% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.66 goals for Gresley and 1.06 for Nuneaton Town, a combined 2.72 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 1–010.9%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–09.1%
- 0–17.0%
Recent form
Gresley
- 2025-08-05T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Eastwood Community · 0-0 (D)
- 2025-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Eastwood Community · 2-2 (D)
- 2024-08-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Khalsa · 0-2 (L)
- 2024-08-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Khalsa · 1-1 (D)
- 2024-08-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lichfield City · 4-2 (W)
Nuneaton Town
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Matlock Town · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bromsgrove Sporting · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lincoln United · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Coleshill Town · 1-2 (L)
- 2025-07-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Leamington · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gresley win, at 51.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.