· Analysis updated 22:32 UTC
GREVAL vs Riacho City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.38 expected goals for GREVAL and 1.63 for Riacho City, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives GREVAL the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
GREVAL win
54.4% probability
Expected goals
2.38 – 1.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
GREVAL home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates GREVAL to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 20% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.38 goals for GREVAL and 1.63 for Riacho City, a combined 4.00 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 76% and both teams to score at 73%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.4%
- 1–17.1%
- 2–26.8%
- 3–16.6%
- 1–25.7%
Recent form
GREVAL
- 2026-09-26T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Legião · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Luziânia · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Taguatinga EC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Candango · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Planaltina DF · 1-1 (D)
Riacho City
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Brasiliense B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taguatinga EC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 9 |
| 2 | Planaltina DF | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Canaa EC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | GREVAL | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | Legião | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Luziânia | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 4 |
| 7 | Candango | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -8 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is GREVAL win, at 54.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.