· Analysis updated 11:27 UTC
GrIFK vs Musa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.41 expected goals for GrIFK and 1.08 for Musa, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives GrIFK the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
GrIFK win
66.7% probability
Expected goals
2.41 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
GrIFK home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Musa away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates GrIFK to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 18% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.41 goals for GrIFK and 1.08 for Musa, a combined 3.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
33%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.6%
- 2–08.8%
- 1–17.9%
- 3–17.7%
- 1–07.3%
Recent form
GrIFK
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Musa · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs EBK · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Musa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs NJS · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T15:30:00.000Z · H vs EBK · 1-1 (D)
Musa
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs EBK · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs GrIFK · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs NJS · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-18T15:30:00.000Z · A vs GrIFK · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs EBK · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Kakkonen - Lohko B table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is GrIFK win, at 66.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.