· Analysis updated 15:54 UTC
Grimsby Borough vs Dunston UTS Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.82 expected goals for Grimsby Borough and 1.53 for Dunston UTS, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Dunston UTS the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dunston UTS win
54.1% probability
Expected goals
0.82 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Grimsby Borough home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Dunston UTS away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.6%
- 1–112.0%
- 0–211.2%
- 0–09.5%
- 1–29.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.2%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.00 (model 56.2% vs market 46.4%, edge +9.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.00 | 46.4% | 56.2% | 1.78 | +9.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.10 | 44.8% | 45.9% | 2.18 | +1.1 |
| Match result | Away | 1.67 | 53.9% | 54.1% | 1.85 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 25.7% | 25.8% | 3.88 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.18 | 79.8% | 79.9% | 1.25 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 4.40 | 20.4% | 20.1% | 4.98 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.3% | 74.2% | 1.35 | -1.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.73 | 53.6% | 43.8% | 2.28 | -9.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Grimsby Borough
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunston UTS · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Grimsby · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-07-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Cleethorpes Town · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Matlock Town · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Heaton Stannington · 4-1 (W)
Dunston UTS
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Avro · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Scarborough Athletic · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Morpeth Town · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vauxhall Motors · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Grimsby Borough · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · Grimsby Borough 0-1 Dunston UTS (FA Trophy)
- 2026-01-24T15:00:00.000Z · Grimsby Borough 0-1 Dunston UTS (Non League Div One - Northern East)
- 2025-10-28T19:45:00.000Z · Grimsby Borough 1-2 Dunston UTS (Non League Div One - Northern East)
- 2025-03-15T15:00:00.000Z · Grimsby Borough 1-1 Dunston UTS (Non League Div One - Northern East)
- 2024-11-09T14:00:00.000Z · Grimsby Borough 0-0 Dunston UTS (Non League Div One - Northern East)
- 2024-04-06T14:00:00.000Z · Grimsby Borough 0-3 Dunston UTS (Non League Div One - Northern East)
- 2023-11-11T15:00:00.000Z · Grimsby Borough 1-2 Dunston UTS (Non League Div One - Northern East)
- 2023-04-18T18:45:00.000Z · Grimsby Borough 1-2 Dunston UTS (Non League Div One - Northern East)
- 2022-11-12T15:00:00.000Z · Grimsby Borough 1-0 Dunston UTS (Non League Div One - Northern East)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dunston UTS win, at 54.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.