Grimsby vs Northampton Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Grimsby and 0.65 for Northampton, a combined total of 2.13. That distribution gives Grimsby the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Grimsby win

57.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.48 – 0.65

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Grimsby home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 7 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Grimsby to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 26% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Grimsby and 0.65 for Northampton, a combined 2.13 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Grimsby win57%

Draw26%

Northampton win16%

Double chance 1X

84%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

43%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals63%

Over 2.5 goals36%

Over 3.5 goals17%

Both teams to score37%

Correct score

1–017.6%
2–013.0%
0–011.9%
1–111.5%
2–18.4%

Recent form

Grimsby

2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Newport County · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Notts County · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Crawley Town · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Bristol Rovers · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cheltenham · 2-2 (D)

Northampton

2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rotherham · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Shrewsbury · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Newport County · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-01T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Crawley Town · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gillingham · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2023-02-18T14:00:00.000Z · Grimsby 2-1 Northampton (League Two)
2022-08-06T14:00:00.000Z · Grimsby 1-1 Northampton (League Two)
2020-02-29T15:00:00.000Z · Grimsby 0-3 Northampton (League Two)
2019-11-23T15:00:00.000Z · Grimsby 0-2 Northampton (League Two)
2019-03-16T15:00:00.000Z · Grimsby 0-0 Northampton (League Two)
2018-11-24T15:00:00.000Z · Grimsby 2-2 Northampton (League Two)
2013-12-07T15:00:00.000Z · Grimsby 2-0 Northampton (FA Cup)

League Two table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Salford City	10	6	1	3	5	19
2	Barnet	8	5	3	0	9	18
3	Crewe	10	4	6	0	5	18
4	Gillingham	10	4	4	2	5	16
5	York	9	4	3	2	6	15
6	Walsall	9	3	6	0	6	15
7	Chesterfield	10	4	3	3	3	15
8	Cheltenham	10	4	3	3	0	15
9	Bristol Rovers	10	5	0	5	-2	15
10	Rochdale	10	4	2	4	-1	14
11	Grimsby	10	3	4	3	2	13
12	Newport County	10	3	4	3	1	13
13	Tranmere	10	2	6	2	0	12
14	Exeter City	10	3	3	4	0	12
15	Accrington ST	10	2	5	3	-1	11
16	Fleetwood Town	10	2	5	3	-1	11
17	Swindon Town	10	3	2	5	-5	11
18	Shrewsbury	10	3	2	5	-6	11
19	Colchester	9	2	4	3	-3	10
20	Rotherham	10	2	4	4	-4	10
21	Oldham	9	2	2	5	-4	8
22	Port Vale	8	2	2	4	-5	8
23	Northampton	8	1	4	3	-3	7
24	Crawley Town	8	1	2	5	-7	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Grimsby win, at 57.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.

A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.