Grimsby vs York Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.42 expected goals for Grimsby and 1.41 for York, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Grimsby the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

62.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.42 – 1.41

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Grimsby home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Grimsby to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 25% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.42 goals for Grimsby and 1.41 for York, a combined 2.83 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 54% and both teams to score at 57%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Match result (1X2)

Grimsby win38%

Draw25%

York win37%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.8%
2–18.4%
1–08.4%
1–28.3%
0–18.3%

Recent form

Grimsby

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Port Vale · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Burton Albion · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Shrewsbury · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Newport County · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Notts County · 1-2 (L)

York

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Northampton · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gillingham · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Rotherham · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chesterfield · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Newcastle United U21 · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

League Two table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Salford City	10	6	1	3	5	19
2	Barnet	8	5	3	0	9	18
3	Crewe	10	4	6	0	5	18
4	Gillingham	10	4	4	2	5	16
5	York	9	4	3	2	6	15
6	Walsall	9	3	6	0	6	15
7	Chesterfield	10	4	3	3	3	15
8	Cheltenham	10	4	3	3	0	15
9	Bristol Rovers	10	5	0	5	-2	15
10	Rochdale	10	4	2	4	-1	14
11	Grimsby	10	3	4	3	2	13
12	Newport County	10	3	4	3	1	13
13	Tranmere	10	2	6	2	0	12
14	Exeter City	10	3	3	4	0	12
15	Accrington ST	10	2	5	3	-1	11
16	Fleetwood Town	10	2	5	3	-1	11
17	Swindon Town	10	3	2	5	-5	11
18	Shrewsbury	10	3	2	5	-6	11
19	Colchester	9	2	4	3	-3	10
20	Rotherham	10	2	4	4	-4	10
21	Oldham	9	2	2	5	-4	8
22	Port Vale	8	2	2	4	-5	8
23	Northampton	8	1	4	3	-3	7
24	Crawley Town	8	1	2	5	-7	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.