· Analysis updated 20:44 UTC
Grindavik vs Throttur Reykjavik Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.88 expected goals for Grindavik and 1.70 for Throttur Reykjavik, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Throttur Reykjavik the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Throttur Reykjavik win
56.9% probability
Expected goals
0.88 – 1.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Grindavik home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Throttur Reykjavik away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.9%
- 1–111.3%
- 0–211.0%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–07.6%
Recent form
Grindavik
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ægir · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs HK Kopavogur · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Fylkir · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-08-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Grotta · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Throttur Reykjavik · 2-1 (W)
Throttur Reykjavik
- 2026-09-19T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Fylkir · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Njardvik · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Njardvik · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vestri · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Ægir · 7-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-13T18:00:00.000Z · Grindavik 2-1 Throttur Reykjavik (1. Deild)
- 2026-06-01T19:15:00.000Z · Grindavik 0-2 Throttur Reykjavik (1. Deild)
- 2025-07-25T19:15:00.000Z · Grindavik 1-2 Throttur Reykjavik (1. Deild)
- 2025-05-18T18:00:00.000Z · Grindavik 4-2 Throttur Reykjavik (1. Deild)
- 2025-02-08T14:00:00.000Z · Grindavik 2-3 Throttur Reykjavik (League Cup)
- 2024-08-29T19:15:00.000Z · Grindavik 2-2 Throttur Reykjavik (1. Deild)
- 2024-06-30T19:15:00.000Z · Grindavik 0-1 Throttur Reykjavik (1. Deild)
- 2023-08-31T17:30:00.000Z · Grindavik 0-5 Throttur Reykjavik (1. Deild)
- 2023-06-30T19:15:00.000Z · Grindavik 1-2 Throttur Reykjavik (1. Deild)
- 2021-08-19T18:00:00.000Z · Grindavik 2-1 Throttur Reykjavik (1. Deild)
1. Deild table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Afturelding | 22 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 45 |
| 2 | Throttur Reykjavik | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 43 |
| 3 | Fylkir | 22 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 40 |
| 4 | HK Kopavogur | 22 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 38 |
| 5 | Njardvik | 22 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 38 |
| 6 | Leiknir R. | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 28 |
| 7 | IR Reykjavik | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 28 |
| 8 | Grotta | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -7 | 27 |
| 9 | Vestri | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -13 | 27 |
| 10 | Völsungur | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -12 | 26 |
| 11 | Grindavik | 22 | 5 | 10 | 7 | -10 | 25 |
| 12 | Ægir | 22 | 2 | 3 | 17 | -44 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Throttur Reykjavik win, at 56.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.