· Analysis updated 14:27 UTC
Großbardorf vs Cham Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Großbardorf and 2.28 for Cham, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives Cham the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cham win
62.1% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 2.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Großbardorf home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cham away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cham to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 19% / 19% / 62% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.18 goals for Großbardorf and 2.28 for Cham, a combined 3.45 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
38%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.7%
- 1–18.5%
- 0–28.2%
- 1–37.3%
- 0–17.2%
Recent form
Großbardorf
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Stadeln · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Bamberg · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Fortuna Regensburg · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Viktoria Aschaffenburg · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Neudrossenfeld · 4-1 (W)
Cham
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Bamberg · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Neudrossenfeld · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ingolstadt II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Nordlingen · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Würzburger FV · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2023-05-27T12:00:00.000Z · Großbardorf 2-3 Cham (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)
- 2022-10-29T12:00:00.000Z · Großbardorf 2-2 Cham (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)
Oberliga - Bayern Nord table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cham | 13 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 34 |
| 2 | Würzburger FV | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 26 |
| 3 | Gebenbach | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 26 |
| 4 | Eintracht Bamberg | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 24 |
| 5 | Jahn Regensburg II | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 22 |
| 6 | Fortuna Regensburg | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 21 |
| 7 | Kornburg | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 21 |
| 8 | Bayern Hof | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 20 |
| 9 | Stadeln | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 19 |
| 10 | Viktoria Aschaffenburg | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 18 |
| 11 | Neudrossenfeld | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 16 |
| 12 | Ammerthal | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 14 |
| 13 | Ingolstadt II | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -6 | 13 |
| 14 | Weiden | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 12 |
| 15 | DJK Bamberg | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -14 | 11 |
| 16 | Großbardorf | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -13 | 10 |
| 17 | Nordlingen | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -14 | 10 |
| 18 | ASV Neumarkt | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | -13 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cham win, at 62.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.