Grobničan Čavle vs Hrvatski Dragovoljac Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Grobničan Čavle and 1.35 for Hrvatski Dragovoljac, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Grobničan Čavle the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

65.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.35

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Grobničan Čavle home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hrvatski Dragovoljac away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 7 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Grobničan Čavle win40%

Draw25%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac win35%

Double chance 1X

65%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.8%
1–08.7%
2–18.7%
0–18.0%
1–28.0%

Recent form

Grobničan Čavle

2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lucko · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Uljanik · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Solin · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Hrvatski Dragovoljac · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Jarun · 0-3 (L)

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Grobničan Čavle · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Križevci · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Trnje · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Slavonija Požega · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-09T14:30:00.000Z · H vs NK Slaven Belupo · 0-5 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · Grobničan Čavle 1-4 Hrvatski Dragovoljac (Second NL)
2026-03-07T14:00:00.000Z · Grobničan Čavle 2-0 Hrvatski Dragovoljac (Second NL)
2025-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · Grobničan Čavle 3-3 Hrvatski Dragovoljac (Second NL)
2025-03-22T14:30:00.000Z · Grobničan Čavle 3-1 Hrvatski Dragovoljac (Second NL)
2024-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · Grobničan Čavle 1-0 Hrvatski Dragovoljac (Second NL)
2024-05-10T15:30:00.000Z · Grobničan Čavle 0-2 Hrvatski Dragovoljac (Second NL)
2023-11-04T13:00:00.000Z · Grobničan Čavle 3-1 Hrvatski Dragovoljac (Second NL)

Second NL table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Uskok Klis	9	7	0	2	14	21
2	Dugo Selo	10	6	1	3	8	19
3	Bjelovar	10	5	3	2	9	18
4	Jarun	9	3	6	0	5	15
5	Solin	10	4	3	3	4	15
6	Slavonija Požega	10	4	3	3	3	15
7	Trnje	10	4	2	4	2	14
8	Uljanik	10	4	2	4	-3	14
9	Inter Zapresic	10	3	4	3	-1	13
10	Zagora	10	2	6	2	1	12
11	Križevci	10	3	3	4	-3	12
12	Grobničan Čavle	10	3	3	4	-6	12
13	Hrvatski Dragovoljac	10	3	2	5	-7	11
14	Lucko	10	2	4	4	-2	10
15	Varteks Varaždin	10	2	2	6	-9	8
16	Koprivnica	10	1	2	7	-15	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.