· Analysis updated 05:42 UTC
Grobničan Čavle vs Zagora Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Grobničan Čavle and 2.38 for Zagora, a combined total of 4.08. That distribution gives Zagora the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Zagora win
52.9% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 2.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Grobničan Čavle home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zagora away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Zagora to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 28% / 20% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Grobničan Čavle and 2.38 for Zagora, a combined 4.08 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.1%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–16.9%
- 1–36.4%
- 2–15.8%
Recent form
Grobničan Čavle
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lucko · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Uljanik · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Solin · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Hrvatski Dragovoljac · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Jarun · 0-3 (L)
Zagora
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Križevci · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Trnje · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Slavonija Požega · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Dugo Selo · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lucko · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second NL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uskok Klis | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 21 |
| 2 | Dugo Selo | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 19 |
| 3 | Bjelovar | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 18 |
| 4 | Jarun | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 15 |
| 5 | Solin | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 6 | Slavonija Požega | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 7 | Trnje | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Uljanik | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 14 |
| 9 | Inter Zapresic | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | Zagora | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 11 | Križevci | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 12 | Grobničan Čavle | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 12 |
| 13 | Hrvatski Dragovoljac | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 14 | Lucko | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 15 | Varteks Varaždin | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 8 |
| 16 | Koprivnica | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -15 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Zagora win, at 52.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.