Groene Ster vs UNA Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Groene Ster and 1.60 for UNA, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives UNA the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

62.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.55 – 1.60

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Groene Ster home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
UNA away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates UNA to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 37% / 24% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.55 goals for Groene Ster and 1.60 for UNA, a combined 3.15 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Groene Ster win37%

Draw24%

UNA win39%

Double chance 1X

61%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

63%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals61%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

1–110.6%
1–28.5%
2–18.2%
0–16.9%
1–06.6%

Recent form

Groene Ster

2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Rijnvogels · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-27T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Gemert · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Amsterdam · 1-6 (L)
2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs EVV · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Zwaluwen · 1-0 (W)

UNA

2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Poortugaal · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Blauw Geel · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-27T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Dongen · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs GOES · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Rijnvogels · 1-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Derde Divisie table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	ACV	10	7	2	1	16	23
1	Noordwijk	10	8	1	1	20	25
2	VV Scherpenzeel	10	7	2	1	8	23
2	FC Lisse	10	8	1	1	14	25
3	Harkemase Boys	10	7	2	1	6	23
3	Excelsior Maassluis	10	7	2	1	14	23
4	Excelsior '31	10	7	1	2	19	22
4	Rijnvogels	10	6	2	2	13	20
5	SC Genemuiden	10	7	0	3	7	21
5	UDI '19	10	6	2	2	11	20
6	TEC	10	6	2	2	12	20
6	Dongen	10	5	1	4	3	16
7	Sportlust '46	10	5	4	1	4	19
7	Zwaluwen	10	5	1	4	-3	16
8	Purmersteijn	10	5	3	2	7	18
8	Poortugaal	10	5	0	5	-2	15
9	Sparta Nijkerk	10	4	2	4	1	14
9	GOES	10	4	2	4	-6	14
10	Hoogeveen	10	4	1	5	1	13
10	Gemert	10	3	4	3	-3	13
11	ADO '20	10	4	1	5	-2	13
11	Blauw Geel	10	3	3	4	0	12
12	Hercules	10	3	1	6	-10	10
12	Roosendaal	10	3	1	6	-5	10
13	Staphorst	10	2	3	5	-5	9
13	TOGB	10	2	3	5	-8	9
14	Eemdijk	9	2	1	6	-15	7
14	Groene Ster	10	2	3	5	-10	9
15	DVS 33 Ermelo	10	1	3	6	-6	6
15	UNA	10	1	5	4	-4	8
16	Dovo	10	1	2	7	-13	5
16	Vvsb	10	2	2	6	-8	8
17	Hollandia	9	1	1	7	-11	4
17	Achilles Veen	10	2	0	8	-14	6
18	SVZW	10	0	1	9	-19	1
18	EVV	10	0	3	7	-12	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 62.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.