· Analysis updated 13:48 UTC
Grohn vs Blumenthaler SV Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Grohn and 3.45 for Blumenthaler SV, a combined total of 4.69. That distribution gives Blumenthaler SV the largest share of the 1X2 market at 78%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 78% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Blumenthaler SV win
78.4% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 3.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Grohn home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Blumenthaler SV away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Blumenthaler SV to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 78%, against 10% / 12% / 78% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Grohn and 3.45 for Blumenthaler SV, a combined 4.69 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
22%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
90%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–37.8%
- 1–26.8%
- 1–46.7%
- 0–36.2%
- 0–25.4%
Recent form
Grohn
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs BTS Neustadt · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Werder Bremen III · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Geestemünde · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Blumenthaler SV · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vatan Sport · 3-2 (W)
Blumenthaler SV
- 2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · H vs BTS Neustadt · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Werder Bremen III · 7-1 (W)
- 2026-08-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Schwachhausen · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-09T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Geestemünde · 7-1 (W)
- 2026-06-07T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eimsbütteler TV · 0-6 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Oberliga - Bremen table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hemelingen | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 31 | 25 |
| 2 | Blumenthaler SV | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 24 |
| 3 | Brinkumer SV | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 24 |
| 4 | OSC Bremerhaven | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 19 |
| 5 | Aumund-Vegesack | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 16 |
| 6 | Vatan Sport | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Schwachhausen | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 13 |
| 8 | Union Bremen | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | Eiche Horn | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -7 | 12 |
| 10 | Geestemünde | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 11 |
| 11 | Grohn | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -12 | 10 |
| 12 | BTS Neustadt | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -13 | 9 |
| 13 | Leher TS | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 8 |
| 14 | Werder Bremen III | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 4 |
| 15 | Woltmershausen | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -23 | 4 |
| 16 | Oberneuland | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -30 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Blumenthaler SV win, at 78.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 84%.
A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.