· Analysis updated 15:58 UTC
Grom Nowy Staw vs Kalisz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.23 expected goals for Grom Nowy Staw and 1.30 for Kalisz, a combined total of 3.53. That distribution gives Grom Nowy Staw the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Grom Nowy Staw win
58.3% probability
Expected goals
2.23 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Grom Nowy Staw home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kalisz away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Grom Nowy Staw to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 20% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.23 goals for Grom Nowy Staw and 1.30 for Kalisz, a combined 3.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.5%
- 1–18.5%
- 2–07.3%
- 3–17.0%
- 1–06.6%
Recent form
Grom Nowy Staw
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Stargard Szczeciński · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Chemik Bydgoszcz · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Victoria Września · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Bałtyk Koszalin · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kotwica Kórnik · 3-1 (W)
Kalisz
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Środa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Lipno Stęszew · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lech Poznań II · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Stargard Szczeciński · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kluczevia Stargard · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
III Liga - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Polonia Środa | 14 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 20 | 34 |
| 2 | Luzino | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 28 |
| 3 | Wda Świecie | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 27 |
| 4 | Kluczevia Stargard | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 23 |
| 5 | Stargard Szczeciński | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 22 |
| 6 | Lech Poznań II | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 21 |
| 7 | Noteć Czarnków | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 20 |
| 8 | Bałtyk Koszalin | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 19 |
| 9 | Elana Toruń | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 19 |
| 10 | Unia Swarzędz | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 18 |
| 11 | Gedania Gdansk | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 18 |
| 12 | Kalisz | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | -2 | 18 |
| 13 | Grom Nowy Staw | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | -1 | 16 |
| 14 | Flota Świnoujście | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -7 | 15 |
| 15 | Chemik Bydgoszcz | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | -9 | 12 |
| 16 | Victoria Września | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | -12 | 12 |
| 17 | Lipno Stęszew | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -11 | 11 |
| 18 | Kotwica Kórnik | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -18 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Grom Nowy Staw win, at 58.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.