Grom Nowy Staw vs Kluczevia Stargard Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Grom Nowy Staw and 2.88 for Kluczevia Stargard, a combined total of 4.28. That distribution gives Kluczevia Stargard the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Kluczevia Stargard win

67.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.40 – 2.88

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Grom Nowy Staw home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kluczevia Stargard away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kluczevia Stargard to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 16% / 16% / 68% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Grom Nowy Staw and 2.88 for Kluczevia Stargard, a combined 4.28 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Grom Nowy Staw win16%

Draw16%

Kluczevia Stargard win68%

Double chance 1X

32%

Double chance 12

84%

Double chance X2

84%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals80%

Over 3.5 goals62%

Both teams to score71%

Correct score

1–28.0%
1–37.7%
0–25.7%
2–25.6%
1–15.6%

Recent form

Grom Nowy Staw

2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Chemik Bydgoszcz · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Victoria Września · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-03T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Bałtyk Koszalin · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kotwica Kórnik · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Flota Świnoujście · 5-0 (W)

Kluczevia Stargard

2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Luzino · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Polonia Środa · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kalisz · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Wda Świecie · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Elana Toruń · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-23T12:00:00.000Z · Grom Nowy Staw 3-4 Kluczevia Stargard (III Liga - Group 2)

III Liga - Group 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Polonia Środa	13	10	3	0	20	33
2	Luzino	13	9	1	3	20	28
3	Wda Świecie	13	7	3	3	2	24
4	Kluczevia Stargard	12	7	1	4	2	22
5	Stargard Szczeciński	13	5	4	4	7	19
6	Bałtyk Koszalin	13	5	4	4	3	19
7	Lech Poznań II	12	5	3	4	0	18
8	Noteć Czarnków	13	5	2	6	0	17
9	Kalisz	13	4	5	4	-2	17
10	Grom Nowy Staw	13	5	1	7	1	16
11	Elana Toruń	13	4	4	5	-3	16
12	Unia Swarzędz	13	4	3	6	1	15
13	Gedania Gdansk	13	3	6	4	0	15
14	Flota Świnoujście	13	4	2	7	-7	14
15	Chemik Bydgoszcz	13	2	6	5	-7	12
16	Victoria Września	13	2	6	5	-11	12
17	Lipno Stęszew	13	3	2	8	-10	11
18	Kotwica Kórnik	13	3	2	8	-16	11

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Kluczevia Stargard win, at 67.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.