Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion · Referee Martin Van den Kerkhof, Netherlands · Analysis updated 16:16 UTC
Groningen vs PEC Zwolle Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.11 expected goals for Groningen and 1.04 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Groningen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Groningen win
61.9% probability
Expected goals
2.11 – 1.04
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Groningen home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
PEC Zwolle away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.5%
- 1–19.4%
- 1–09.0%
- 3–17.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.2%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.62 (model 43.2% vs market 34.8%, edge +8.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.62 | 34.8% | 43.2% | 2.31 | +8.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 79.0% | 79.7% | 1.25 | +0.7 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.50 | 37.9% | 38.1% | 2.62 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.44 | 61.9% | 61.9% | 1.62 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.40 | 20.3% | 20.3% | 4.93 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 5.00 | 17.8% | 17.8% | 5.62 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.14 | 83.1% | 82.2% | 1.22 | -0.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.40 | 65.2% | 56.8% | 1.76 | -8.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Groningen
- 2026-10-11T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Excelsior · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs PEC Zwolle · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:45:00.000Z · A vs GO Ahead Eagles · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Twente · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Sittard · 2-3 (L)
PEC Zwolle
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Cambuur · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Groningen · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Feyenoord · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Rotterdam · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · H vs NEC Nijmegen · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · Groningen 3-0 PEC Zwolle (Eredivisie)
- 2026-03-13T19:00:00.000Z · Groningen 1-1 PEC Zwolle (Eredivisie)
- 2025-11-23T15:45:00.000Z · Groningen 2-2 PEC Zwolle (Eredivisie)
- 2025-05-18T12:30:00.000Z · Groningen 0-2 PEC Zwolle (Eredivisie)
- 2024-12-08T11:15:00.000Z · Groningen 0-0 PEC Zwolle (Eredivisie)
- 2023-08-05T14:00:00.000Z · Groningen 0-0 PEC Zwolle (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2022-02-20T11:15:00.000Z · Groningen 1-1 PEC Zwolle (Eredivisie)
- 2021-12-03T19:00:00.000Z · Groningen 1-1 PEC Zwolle (Eredivisie)
- 2021-05-16T12:30:00.000Z · Groningen 0-1 PEC Zwolle (Eredivisie)
- 2021-02-13T11:00:00.000Z · Groningen 1-0 PEC Zwolle (Eredivisie)
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 20 |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 19 |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | GO Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Groningen win, at 61.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.