Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.60 expected goals for Groningen and 1.58 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 4.18. That distribution gives Groningen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Groningen win

59.7% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.60 – 1.58

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Groningen home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sparta Rotterdam away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Groningen win60%

Draw18%

Sparta Rotterdam win22%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

40%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals79%

Over 3.5 goals60%

Both teams to score73%

Correct score

2–18.2%
3–17.1%
2–26.4%
1–16.3%
3–25.6%

Recent form

Groningen

2026-10-11T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Excelsior · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs PEC Zwolle · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-12T16:45:00.000Z · A vs GO Ahead Eagles · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Twente · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Sittard · 2-3 (L)

Sparta Rotterdam

2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · A vs GO Ahead Eagles · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-19T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Heerenveen · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs PSV Eindhoven · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs PEC Zwolle · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Excelsior · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-01-31T20:00:00.000Z · Groningen 0-2 Sparta Rotterdam (Eredivisie)
2025-10-30T19:00:00.000Z · Groningen 2-5 Sparta Rotterdam (KNVB Beker)
2025-10-19T12:30:00.000Z · Groningen 0-2 Sparta Rotterdam (Eredivisie)
2025-02-02T15:45:00.000Z · Groningen 0-1 Sparta Rotterdam (Eredivisie)
2024-11-09T15:30:00.000Z · Groningen 1-0 Sparta Rotterdam (Eredivisie)
2023-05-28T12:30:00.000Z · Groningen 0-5 Sparta Rotterdam (Eredivisie)
2022-09-17T14:30:00.000Z · Groningen 1-2 Sparta Rotterdam (Eredivisie)
2022-05-07T19:00:00.000Z · Groningen 1-2 Sparta Rotterdam (Eredivisie)
2021-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · Groningen 1-1 Sparta Rotterdam (Eredivisie)
2021-05-02T12:30:00.000Z · Groningen 1-2 Sparta Rotterdam (Eredivisie)

Eredivisie table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Feyenoord	8	6	2	0	20	20
2	PSV Eindhoven	8	6	1	1	16	19
3	AZ Alkmaar	8	6	1	1	10	19
4	Twente	8	5	2	1	8	17
5	Ajax	8	4	3	1	12	15
6	Groningen	8	4	2	2	6	14
7	Fortuna Sittard	8	4	2	2	-1	14
8	GO Ahead Eagles	8	2	5	1	2	11
9	Excelsior	8	3	2	3	2	11
10	Heerenveen	8	2	3	3	0	9
11	NEC Nijmegen	8	2	3	3	-1	9
12	Cambuur	8	2	2	4	-8	8
13	Utrecht	8	2	2	4	-11	8
14	Sparta Rotterdam	8	1	3	4	-7	6
15	Telstar	8	1	3	4	-7	6
16	PEC Zwolle	8	1	1	6	-15	4
17	ADO Den Haag	8	0	3	5	-10	3
18	Willem II	8	0	2	6	-16	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Groningen win, at 59.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.

A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.