Euroborg · Analysis updated 15:38 UTC
Groningen vs Telstar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for Groningen and 1.25 for Telstar, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives Groningen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Groningen win
64.6% probability
Expected goals
2.50 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Groningen home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Telstar away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Groningen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 18% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.50 goals for Groningen and 1.25 for Telstar, a combined 3.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.2%
- 3–17.7%
- 2–07.3%
- 1–17.3%
- 3–06.1%
Recent form
Groningen
- 2026-10-11T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Excelsior · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs PEC Zwolle · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:45:00.000Z · A vs GO Ahead Eagles · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Twente · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Sittard · 2-3 (L)
Telstar
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs ADO Den Haag · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs AZ Alkmaar · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Heerenveen · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Twente · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Cambuur · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 20 |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 19 |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | GO Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Groningen win, at 64.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.