Grorud vs Follo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.23 expected goals for Grorud and 1.17 for Follo, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Grorud the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Grorud win

61.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.23 – 1.17

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Grorud home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Follo away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Grorud to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 20% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.23 goals for Grorud and 1.17 for Follo, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Grorud win61%

Draw20%

Follo win19%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

39%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals44%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

2–19.7%
1–18.7%
2–08.3%
1–07.4%
3–17.2%

Recent form

Grorud

2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Lørenskog · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Levanger · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Moss · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kjelsås · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Tromsdalen Uil · 2-0 (W)

Follo

2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Stjørdals-Blink · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarpsborg 08 FF · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kjelsås · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Eidsvold · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Levanger · 2-5 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

2. Division - Group 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Eidsvold	23	17	3	3	35	54
2	Kjelsås	23	16	2	5	21	50
3	Levanger	23	15	1	7	26	46
4	Hønefoss	23	14	4	5	23	46
5	Grorud	23	14	4	5	22	46
6	Tromsdalen Uil	23	11	2	10	2	35
7	Lørenskog	23	10	4	9	-4	34
8	Stjørdals-Blink	23	10	3	10	-1	33
9	Junkeren	23	9	4	10	-7	31
10	Rana	23	9	3	11	-3	30
11	Skeid	23	6	2	15	-19	20
12	Follo	23	3	5	15	-23	14
13	Ull/Kisa	23	4	1	18	-44	13
14	Trygg/Lade	23	2	4	17	-28	10

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Grorud win, at 61.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.