Grorud Matchbane · Analysis updated 16:02 UTC
Grorud vs Rana Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Grorud and 0.80 for Rana, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Grorud the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Grorud win
64.4% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Grorud home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rana away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Grorud to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 21% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Grorud and 0.80 for Rana, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.5%
- 2–012.2%
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.7%
- 3–07.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 14.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.38 (model 52.8% vs market 38.7%, edge +14.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.38 | 38.7% | 52.8% | 1.89 | +14.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.12 | 83.3% | 85.4% | 1.17 | +2.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 77.8% | 79.0% | 1.27 | +1.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.20 | 20.9% | 21.0% | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 6.00 | 14.6% | 14.6% | 6.85 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 1.36 | 64.5% | 64.4% | 1.55 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.40 | 38.9% | 35.6% | 2.81 | -3.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.50 | 61.3% | 47.2% | 2.12 | -14.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Grorud
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Lørenskog · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Levanger · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Moss · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kjelsås · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Tromsdalen Uil · 2-0 (W)
Rana
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Junkeren · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Hønefoss · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Lørenskog · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Grorud · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Ull/Kisa · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. Division - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eidsvold | 23 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 35 | 54 |
| 2 | Kjelsås | 23 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 50 |
| 3 | Levanger | 23 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 46 |
| 4 | Hønefoss | 23 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 23 | 46 |
| 5 | Grorud | 23 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 46 |
| 6 | Tromsdalen Uil | 23 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 35 |
| 7 | Lørenskog | 23 | 10 | 4 | 9 | -4 | 34 |
| 8 | Stjørdals-Blink | 23 | 10 | 3 | 10 | -1 | 33 |
| 9 | Junkeren | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | -7 | 31 |
| 10 | Rana | 23 | 9 | 3 | 11 | -3 | 30 |
| 11 | Skeid | 23 | 6 | 2 | 15 | -19 | 20 |
| 12 | Follo | 23 | 3 | 5 | 15 | -23 | 14 |
| 13 | Ull/Kisa | 23 | 4 | 1 | 18 | -44 | 13 |
| 14 | Trygg/Lade | 23 | 2 | 4 | 17 | -28 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Grorud win, at 64.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.